Who Will Be the Next Pope? Nine Cardinals Emerge as Top Contenders
VATICAN CITY
With the passing of Pope Francis on Easter Monday 2025, the global Catholic Church enters a solemn phase of reflection and anticipation. While the conclave date is yet to be confirmed, speculation about his successor is heating up. Though predicting the next pope is often futile — as the old saying goes, "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves as a cardinal" — nine cardinals stand out in conversations as potential heirs to the papacy.
Papabili: The Top Nine Candidates to Lead the Catholic Church
1. Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66)
The Archbishop of Marseille, Jean-Marc Aveline, has captured attention with his charisma, academic depth, and close alignment with Francis’ pastoral vision. Born in Algeria to Spanish immigrants, Aveline is respected for promoting interreligious dialogue and advocating for Mediterranean unity. His laid-back demeanor and theological insights make him an appealing figure, although his limited fluency in Italian could be a barrier.
2. Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72)
Cardinal Erdo of Budapest is known for his conservative theology balanced with diplomatic pragmatism. While some criticized his stance during the European migrant crisis, his expertise in Canon Law, linguistic versatility, and long-standing ties across Europe and Africa position him as a strong unifying choice.
3. Mario Grech (Malta, 68)
As the secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Grech has proven his progressive leanings and ability to adapt to contemporary Church challenges. From conservative roots, he evolved into a leading figure of reform, promoting inclusivity and dialogue, particularly around family and LGBT issues.
4. Juan José Omella (Spain, 79)
Omella has championed social justice throughout his career, earning a reputation for humility and compassion. A Francis-like figure from Barcelona, his dedication to the marginalized and his missionary work in Africa align with a continuation of Francis’ legacy. However, proximity to past sexual abuse controversies in Spain may cloud his chances.
5. Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
Currently the Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is seen as a seasoned diplomat. He has maintained balance amid Church politics, fostering dialogue with countries like China and Venezuela. Fluent in several languages, Parolin is viewed as a steady, compromise candidate who could bring the papacy back to Italy after four decades.
6. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Nicknamed the "Asian Francis," Cardinal Tagle represents the growing strength of Catholicism in Asia. He has extensive pastoral and Vatican experience, with his inclusive theology and charisma making him a global favorite. While his Caritas leadership was marred by internal controversies, his broader appeal remains intact.
7. Joseph Tobin (USA, 72)
The Archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, Tobin is the strongest American contender. Admired for his transparent handling of abuse scandals and progressive stances on LGBT inclusion, he embodies a pastoral and approachable leadership style. His chances, however, may be hindered by geopolitical sensitivities regarding a U.S.-born pope.
8. Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
A longtime Vatican official and respected voice from Africa, Turkson blends grassroots pastoral experience with global advocacy on social issues like climate change. If elected, he would be the first African pope in over a millennium. While some view his media visibility as self-promotional, others see a leader ready to modernize the Church.
9. Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
Often dubbed the “Italian Bergoglio,” Zuppi is deeply involved in peace diplomacy and social outreach. He is close to the Community of Sant’Egidio and was recently appointed as Francis’ envoy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A proponent of dialogue and charity, his progressive tone might not sit well with traditionalists, but his Roman roots and humility strike a familiar chord.
The Path Forward: A Delicate Balance of Vision and Tradition
As the Catholic Church prepares for a new leader, these nine cardinals represent diverse theological, cultural, and diplomatic directions. Whether the conclave leans toward continuity, reform, or a return to traditionalism, the choice of the next pope will shape the global Church for generations to come.
